Brazil election results updates: Lula and Bolsonaro advance to run-off

Thank you for joining us for our coverage of Brazil’s election results.

Find out how one of the largest fraud scandals in modern Brazilian history may have affected the presidential race here.

Find out why this election was so polarised here.

We will be closing this live page soon. Here’s a quick recap of the election and the results:

• Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, will advance to a run-off election on October 25, since neither won 50 percent or more in today’s general election.
• Bolsonaro fared better than expected, securing more than 47 percent of the vote compared with Lula’s 44.74 percent, with more than 97 percent of votes counted.
• Lula and Bolsonaro now have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round.
• Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of Jair Bolsonaro and stepmother of presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro, won a Senate seat.
• While Lula and Bolsonaro progress to a run-off, right-wing parties, led by Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, are on track to notch big wins in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, the two houses of the country’s legislature.

Both candidates will need to get more votes in the second round, including Flavio Bolsonaro’s camp.

But they will probably have an easier time because a lot of those who didn’t vote for either Bolsonaro or Lula but for smaller candidates – there are about 5 or 6 percent of voters who voted for conservative candidates rather than the two main candidates – will most likely vote for Bolsonaro over the left-wing candidate who they know and are tired of.

Election authorities have confirmed that Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of former President Jair Bolsonaro and stepmother of presidential candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, home to the capital, Brasilia.

A devout evangelical, the 44-year-old has never held public office.

In June, Michelle Bolsonaro had a very public falling out with her stepson, whom she accused of disrespecting her in lengthy videos posted on her social media. The pair later made up.

She has called her candidacy “a mission” entrusted by her husband, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest after being convicted of attempting a coup.

Lula da Silva, the current president who is 81 and hoping for a fourth and what would clearly be a final presidential term, is now inching up again, with about 42.2 percent of the vote. That’s a long way behind Flavio Bolsonaro, but enough if this trend continues, to lead this into a run-off in about three weeks’ time.

That’s certainly what everybody had expected, but most people thought that this was going to be a much, much closer election, and that Lula would in fact be ahead by about two percentage points, maybe even more.

Flavio Bolsonaro, therefore, is doing much better than originally predicted, more than what the polls had said and more than what the pundits believed. And this seems to be the trend in the region: The population is moving more towards the far right than it ever has before. It happened in neighbouring countries, and it appears to be happening now.

The Brazilian pollster Datafolha has projected that neither Lula nor Bolsonaro will secure the majority of votes needed to win outright in the first-round presidential election, setting the two up for a run-off vote on October 25.

With nearly 65 percent of votes counted on Sunday, Bolsonaro continued to lead Lula but dropped below 50 percent. The latest count shows Bolsonaro with 49.58 percent of the vote compared with 42.25 percent for Lula.

Brazil’s next president will govern a country containing about 60 percent of the Amazon rainforest, an ecosystem with enormous importance for the global climate.

Climate and conservation experts say a Bolsonaro win could reverse the deforestation-control policies Lula brought back since he returned to office in 2023. Since then, deforestation has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.

During the presidency of Bolsonaro’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, Amazon deforestation had surged by about 60 percent, according to official data.

Lula and Bolsonaro have offered sharply different visions for the rainforest, with Lula proposing reaching net-zero deforestation by 2030, meaning any forest lost legally or illegally would have to be offset through restoration, while Bolsonaro has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029.

As Brazilians await the results of today’s vote, some are watching the actions of the Trump administration with concern and anticipation as the US embraces increasingly assertive efforts to shape regional elections in favour of candidates aligned with Trump.

The US president has previously sought to shape domestic affairs in Brazil through a combination of diplomatic and economic pressure, revoking visas for judicial officials involved in the case against former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and placing heavy tariffs on Brazilian goods in an effort to have the case thrown out.

Like Trump himself, the elder Bolsonaro has pushed false claims of rampant voter fraud that have served as a pretext for ignoring unfavourable election results. Trump has likewise mirrored claims on the Brazilian right depicting Bolsonaro’s conviction for involvement in a coup plot following his loss to Lula in 2022 as a “witch-hunt”.

Lula’s government banned two US officials from entering the country earlier this year, stating that they planned to cast doubt on the integrity of the voting process.

A group of 31 Democratic US Congress members recently sent a letter to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticising “an apparent effort to interfere with, and potentially undermine” Brazilian elections.

With more than 47 percent of the vote counted, Flavio Bolsonaro holds 50.20 percent of the vote to Lula’s 41.63 percent.

That lead could reflect an early emphasis on southern states where Bolsonaro has typically enjoyed higher support, but it represents a solid result for the right-wing candidate thus far.

Early results also indicate that Bolsonaro’s right-wing Liberal Party is on track for a strong showing in the Senate.

The presidential race may be getting the most attention, but other key contests may determine how much the next president can actually get done.

All 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies are up for grabs, along with 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats. Voters are also choosing governors in all 26 states and the federal district.

Both houses of Congress are currently dominated by conservatives, which has proved to be a challenge for Lula’s agenda in his third term.

The results could also be consequential for Flavio Bolsonaro’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The younger Bolsonaro has said that if elected, he would seek a congressional amnesty for his father, who was convicted of an attempted coup after losing the 2022 election. That would need approval from both houses, and the Senate approves the president’s nominees to the Supreme Court.

Several other members of the Bolsonaro family are also on the ballot. The former president’s wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and his son, Carlos Bolsonaro, are both running for the Senate, while his youngest son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, is seeking a seat in the lower house.

President Lula is only scoring about 40.7 percent of the vote as opposed to more than 51 percent by his adversary, Flavio Bolsonaro. And unless that shifts significantly in the coming hours, it’s possible that what nobody thought would happen will happen, and that is that Flavio Bolsonaro could win in the first round.

Now, we have to keep in mind that the votes so far that have been counted are the ones from the south of Brazil. That is where the Bolsonaros have the most support. As the votes continue to be counted, reach other parts of the country and go northward, then we’ll be seeing much more support for the Lula campaign.

So, it’s true that we can’t say yet who is going to win, but we wouldn’t have expected Flavio Bolsonaro to do so well as he has so quickly.

The president of the Superior Electoral Court said voting was proceeding smoothly, except for heavy rain and power outages that caused some disruptions in the southern state of Parana.

“We are almost three hours away from the end of the voting and everything is proceeding normally and with the greatest possible transparency,” Kassio Nunes Marques said during a media conference earlier in the day.

About 159 million people are registered to vote in Brazil.

At 80, Lula is one of Brazil’s most enduring political figures, and if he wins, he will surpass his own record as the country’s oldest elected president.

The working-class base that carried the former union leader to power has changed significantly, with fewer Brazilians belonging to unions and millions now working in the informal and gig economies.

Lula also faces frustration over the cost of living. Brazil has recorded solid economic growth and historically low unemployment during his third term, but the numbers haven’t translated into optimism. High interest rates and household debt have left many voters feeling squeezed.

Public security is another area where Lula struggles, with polling showing violence as voters’ top concern.

Lula faces a tight race against 45-year-old Bolsonaro, which could determine what the final chapter of his long political career could look like.

Read more here.

Polling stations in Brazil began closing at 5:00pm Brasilia time (20:00 GMT), although those who remain in line are still eligible to cast their votes.

Vote counting begins as soon as polls close and results are expected within hours.

Voting is mandatory in Brazil for literate people over 18 years old, and failing to cast a ballot in Brazil’s elections incurs a small fine. Those who are illiterate, above the age of 70, and between 16 and 18 years of age may choose whether to exercise their right to vote. For Brazilians abroad, voting is required only in the presidential race.

“We need a change, Brazil has had too many years of Lula,” said 39-year-old systems analyst Robson, after voting for Flavio Bolsonaro at a polling station on Sao Paulo’s Avenida Paulista.

He told Al Jazeera that the country is heading in “the totally wrong direction,” and that Flavio would be Brazil’s antidote.

Of the country’s most pressing problems, Robson singled out the national debt as his biggest concern. “Since the current government is doing nothing to control it, I voted for a candidate who will.”

It is one of the largest fraud scandals in modern Brazilian history and experts say it may play a role in the nail-biter race unfolding for Brazil’s presidency as the electorate grapples with alienation from politics.

Both major candidates have faced fallout from the Banco Master scandal, a sprawling financial scheme that has overshadowed Brazilian politics.

Read the full story here.

Twelve candidates are contesting Brazil’s presidency, but the race has been dominated by Lula and Bolsonaro.

Lula, 80, is seeking an unprecedented fourth term in office. A former union leader from Brazil’s impoverished northeast, he is running in his seventh presidential election and has already served three terms as president.

Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. He entered the race with his father’s backing after the former president was barred from holding public office and later sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat.

Opinion polls suggest neither Lula nor Bolsonaro is likely to secure more than 50 percent of valid votes on Sunday, the threshold needed to win outright. If no candidate clears that mark, the two leading candidates will advance to a run-off on October 25.