Biden or Trump? Famed US historian predicts winner of US election

Professor Allan Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984, using “13 keys” that primarily assess the performance of the party in power.

“They look at the fundamentals of what drive US presidential elections – not the polls, not the punditry, not the speeches, the debates, the ads, the fundraising, the dirty tricks of the campaign. Those trivia don’t matter at all,” Lichtman explains.

What matters are things such as the strength of the economy and whether there is social unrest, said Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington.

“My final prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George HW Bush in 1992 to lose reelection,” he says.

While Trump’s chances still looked promising until the end of 2019, according to Lichtman’s model, the economic plunge amid the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide racial justice protests in 2020 may seal his fate.