Gold surges to $2,000 record on dollar weakness, US-China woes

Gold prices rocketed to a record high on Tuesday, with futures touching $2,000 an ounce, while the United States dollar plumbed two-year lows as investors wagered the Federal Reserve would reaffirm its policies to stimulate the economy this week.

The prospect of endless stimulus allowed Asian shares to shake off coronavirus concerns and China-US tensions to make early gains.

Countries around the world are announcing new travel curbs amid a fresh wave of the coronavirus, a setback to hopes for a “V”-shaped economic recovery.

Yet investors are taking comfort from the prospect of yet more fiscal spending and endless cheap liquidity, with US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expected to sound reassuringly accommodative after a policy meeting on Wednesday.

“Fed officials have made clear that they will be making their forward guidance more dovish and outcome-based soon,” wrote analysts at TD Securities.

“The chairman is likely to continue the process of prepping markets for changes when he speaks at his press conference.”

All of which helped MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan add 1.2 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei firmed 0.6 percent even though the yen rose against the dollar, making exports more expensive.

E-Mini futures for the US S&P 500 benchmark share index gained 0.4 percent, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5 percent.

The Dow ended Monday up 0.43 percent, while the S&P 500 gained 0.74 percent and the Nasdaq 1.67 percent.

The gains were again led by technology stocks as investors wagered on upbeat earnings reports due this week. Analysts also noted the falling dollar was a positive given that more than 40 percent of S&P 500 earnings come from abroad.

But continuing concerns over the global economy as coronavirus cases surge continued to drive many investors towards the relative safety of gold and silver.

Gold futures rose 2.3 percent to $2,000 an ounce in early Singapore trading but then slipped back to $1,997. Spot gold was at $1,973.44. Gold prices have climbed more than $160 in just six sessions. Silver put on another 5 percent to reach $25.81, its highest since April 2013, and a gain of almost a third in seven sessions.

Dollar decline

There were hopes some sort of stimulus extension could be hammered out as US Senate Republicans raced to complete details of a $1 trillion coronavirus aid proposal before enhanced unemployment benefits expire on Friday.

The proposal could involve a cut in benefits to $200 from $600, which would be a big blow to household incomes and spending power.

Aid is desperately needed given that 30 million Americans are out of work and states are tightening social restrictions again, a trend that has also dragged on the US dollar.

Alan Ruskin, head of G10 strategy at Deutsche Bank, noted currencies had been tracking the relative performance of their economies, so that high-ranked economic performance was associated with stronger currencies.

“One clear pattern is how economies linked most tightly to China – including commodity producers as diverse as Australia, Chile and Brazil – have tended to perform better than economies most directly linked to the US, notably its NAFTA trading partners,” said Ruskin.

Indeed, the dollar index has been falling almost across the board in recent days, reaching a two-year trough on a basket of currencies at 93.416.

The euro was up at $1.1766, having hit its highest since late 2008 at $1.1781, while the dollar touched its lowest against the Swiss franc since mid-2015.

The story was much the same against the Japanese yen, as the dollar skidded to a four-month trough at 105.10.

Oil prices also tend to benefit from a falling dollar but have been hampered by worries about demand as countries impose more travel restrictions.

Brent crude futures edged up 20 cents to $43.61 a barrel, while US crude firmed 12 cents to $41.72.