Is it possible that you are just as accurate at predicting the future outcome of an event, like an election or sporting event, as an expert?

Prediction markets are based around the idea that a collection of individuals, with their own independent interests, can collectively determine an outcome just as well or perhaps even better than a so-called expert.

It  is "wisdom of the crowd" logic put into a market scenario and depending on when you place your bet and whether or not you are right, it could mean big money.

One such market accurately predicted the day that Saddam Hussein, the former Iraqi leader, fell from power.


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Critics say it is gambling, only with the future, and that it is susceptible to manipulation. But companies and governments are finding it an increasingly useful management tool.

On Thursday's Riz Khan show we ask: How reliable are prediction markets and are they dangerous?

Joining the discussion will be John Delaney, the CEO of Intrade, one of the most well-known prediction markets, and Dr Robin Hanson, the chief scientist for Consensus Point which provides enterprise prediction markets for corporations and government clients.

This episode of the Riz Khan show aired on Thursday, April 8, 2010.

Source: Al Jazeera