Counting the Cost

Thailand’s grief: An unstable economic future ahead?

As Thailand mourns, how will foreign investors deal with the ensuing political instability? Plus, Saudi diversification.

The king is dead and Thailand is officially in mourning for an entire year. So what sort of impact will this have on the country and its economy, especially after a decade filled with political turmoil?

It is publicly known that the crown prince and the military are not on good terms. They do not like each other.

by Reuben Mondejar, visiting associate professor, City University of Hong Kong

In 2004, tourism was accountable for up to 19.3 percent of Thailand’s GDP, but with the military coup of 2014, the traditionally resilient Thai economy struggled.

Now with the country in a subdued mood – especially for the first 30 days after the king’s death – there are concerns there could be an economic downturn. The growth forecast has already been set for only 3.1 percent this year.

But beyond that, there’s the issue of a decade of political instability in Thailand – the type which can easily put foreign investors off.

How likely is a long-term downturn as a result of said unpredictability? 

“That is the big question,” says Reuben Mondejar from City University of Hong Kong. “We will have to see what the effect will be of the handover, of the change. The king died, and the crown prince has asked for the coronation to be postponed, and there seems to be a power struggle going on … investors will take a look how that plays [out] … stability is the key for investment.”

Whether we’re talking military, civilian or monarchy, the leadership in Thailand will have to work to safeguard its economy.

The changing face of Saudi Arabia’s economy

With the oil price still stagnant, Saudi Arabia has made its most tangible move yet to create money from other sources. This past week, it went to the debt markets and made its first international bond offering – which brought in over $17bn – and such was the interest it could easily have sold more.

It’s something of a watershed moment for the Gulf economies – a record-breaking capital raising which didn’t have anything to do with the oil industry. This is only part of Saudi Arabia’s plans to diversify its economy away from oil production.

We speak with Marc Ostwald, strategist at ADM Investor Services International in London, about what this means for the Gulf nation and the work that still needs to be done to help prop up an economy that has been black gold reliant for so long.

Ireland’s hard Brexit

The British Pound is already falling in anticipation of Brexit, and that’s having an effect on neighbouring Ireland. It is even forecast that the currency will potentially drop to fresh lows, exceeding the three-decade low it currently nestles in.

Ireland exports 50 percent of its food products to the UK, and the falling value of the pound means their profits and revenues are falling, too. And with Ireland only two years into its recovery from a financial crisis and bailout, it can ill afford another hit to the local economy.

John McGrane, director general of the British Irish Chamber of Commerce, speaks to the Counting the Cost about what the Brexit scenario will mean for employment in the emerald isle, indigenous Irish firms, and potential government intervention.

Latin America’s urban sprawl race

The United Nations has already estimated that by the middle of this century, 70 percent of the world’s population will live in cities full of pollution and overcrowding. In Santiago and Buenos Aires, the movement of the population into the larger cities is evident. 

Cities cover only 2 percent of the world’s land mass, consume 60 percent of our energy and generate 70 percent of total global waste – more than 800 million people live in slum conditions.

Al Jazeera’s Daniel Schweimler reports from Buenos Aires on the UN Habitat III conference taking place in Quito, Ecuador.