Borders, ballots and boycotts

Like many Venezuelans, Oliver Rivas grew up looking at maps of his country: a triangle on the edge of the Caribbean Sea.

But one region always stood out. In school textbooks and on classroom posters, a stretch of land in the east was marked differently, with shading, red marks or dashed boundary lines.

That region was Essequibo, a 160,000-square-kilometre (62,000-square-mile) area rich with jungles, rivers and mountains, not to mention resources like oil and gold.

“It always appeared as a claimed zone or disputed territory," Rivas said. "We always understood that it was subject to controversy. That’s what we learned in school. But it has always been part of the map of Venezuela, part of Venezuelan territory."

For the majority of Venezuelans like Rivas, that territory — roughly the size of Florida — belongs to their country.

But Venezuela's neighbour Guyana, a former British colony, has administered the region for over a century. It claims Essequibo as its own.

As Venezuela prepares for parliamentary and regional elections on May 25, that longstanding territorial dispute has returned to the spotlight. For the first time, Venezuela will elect representatives not only for its 23 recognised states but also for a new state: Guayana Esequiba.

Rivas is standing as a candidate. He’s running on behalf of the socialist coalition led by President Nicolas Maduro.

Eight seats in Venezuela's National Assembly have been assigned to Essequibo. But neither Rivas nor any of the other candidates can campaign there.

Those who live in the region — mainly those with Guyanese citizenship — can’t even vote. The Guyanese government has warned that participating in Venezuela’s election could amount to treason.

Even international bodies have rejected the vote. On May 1, the International Court of Justice, the highest judicial body at the United Nations, ruled that Venezuela must "refrain from conducting elections" for Essequibo while it continues to weigh the territorial dispute.

Nevertheless, Rivas and supporters of the new state see the regional elections as crucial to assert Venezuela’s longstanding claim over Essequibo. He considers the opportunity “an honour”.

But even among Venezuelans, there are doubts about the motives behind this month's vote.

Critics have dismissed it as a political manoeuvre to reinforce Maduro's grip on power — a move that risks inflaming relations with Guyana and the international community.

The Essequibo region is sparsely populated, home to an estimated 125,000 people out of Guyana’s total 800,000. It covers about two-thirds of Guyana’s landmass.

But the territory boasts a wealth of resources, including gold, diamonds, lithium and other minerals, fuelling the tensions over its ownership.

The dispute has its roots in colonial times. In 1899, an international tribunal was convened to settle the issue.

At the time, Venezuela was a young country, less than nine decades old. It was represented by the United States, then an ally, during the proceedings. Guyana, still a colony, was backed by the United Kingdom.

A Russian judge, appointed as neutral arbitrator, ultimately ruled in favour of British Guiana — a verdict Venezuela has never accepted, alleging it was rigged.

Carmen Beatriz Fernandez, a political analyst and lecturer of political communication, believes Maduro and his allies are now leveraging the controversial issue for their political survival.

“They just use it to feed a narrative — an anti-imperialist, nationalist storyline,” she said.

Maduro has weathered multiple crises since taking power in 2013, and Fernandez argues Essequibo is being used to distract from his political failings.

One of the most recent was the contested 2024 presidential election. The pro-government electoral council declared Maduro the winner without evidence, while opposition tallies showed a landslide for their candidate.

Protests erupted in the aftermath, and Maduro's government responded with deadly force. At least 24 people were killed. Fernandez said she considers the election a "watershed moment" for the Maduro government, which faced a wave of international criticism.

She sees the upcoming regional election as a chance for Maduro to consolidate his power.

“Everything they're doing around these elections is about an institutional readjustment to a new political reality,” Fernandez told Al Jazeera.

Her view is that Maduro is embracing an increasingly autocratic model of governance, one masked by "small-scale" elections that offer the veneer of democratic participation.

“In other words, a model where you have many elections, but the votes don't jeopardise real political power," she said.

Human rights advocate Orlando Moreno led the 2024 presidential campaign for Venezuela's opposition coalition in the coastal state of Delta Amacuro, which borders Essequibo.

He too argues that Maduro is using the conflict with Guyana to divert attention away from his post-election crackdown on dissent.

“He pretty much navigates those two waters to try to make his criminal actions go unnoticed,” said Moreno, who was detained and tortured by Maduro's government in 2017 and again in 2021.

Following the 2024 election, Venezuelan state forces arrested more than 2,000 people, including protesters, journalists, politicians and human rights activists. Some have been released while others continue to be detained.

According to human rights group Foro Penal, 900 people remain behind bars, accused of crimes like inciting hatred and terrorism. The government has denied that these individuals are political prisoners, insisting instead that they are criminals.

That is one of the reasons why the opposition bloc is largely boycotting the upcoming vote, though a small breakaway group believes participation is necessary to maintain a foothold in the government.

Yet, despite the deep political divisions, Venezuela's claim over Essequibo is a rare point of consensus between the Maduro government and the opposition.

Their opinions on how to resolve the dispute are at odds, though. In general, the opposition bloc believes in settling the matter at the international court, while Maduro has pressed for bilateral talks under the 1966 Geneva Agreement.

There are also concerns that the tensions could erupt into fighting. In 2023, Maduro established a military zone near the border region. And last week, Guyanese soldiers reported attacks by armed Venezuelan men, dressed as civilians.

The Guyana Defence Force said there were three attacks in less than 24 hours. The Maduro government has denied any involvement.

For his part, Moreno opposes military intervention. He wants the issue decided at the UN's court.

"It's about approaching the recovery of the Essequibo with real jurists who know the subject, without any kind of armed conflict," Moreno explained.

However, the case has been slowly winding its way through the international court since 2018. And the Maduro government views the UN body as a tool of foreign interference, particularly for his rivals in the US.

Maduro's supporters point to the fact that, in 2015, the US oil giant ExxonMobil discovered vast offshore fields near Essequibo. The company has continued to explore the contested waters in search of more oil and gas deposits.

For Rivas, the 2015 discovery “rang alarm bells”, leading him to fear further US incursions into the disputed territory.

“It’s absolutely terrible because, behind this, there's an aspiration to control mineral wealth, oil, sources of fossil energy and even the water wealth that exists in all of that territory,” Rivas told Al Jazeera.

To him, sovereignty over Essequibo is paramount, and the Venezuelan flag is a symbolic reminder of its importance.

Since 1863, the yellow, blue and red banner has featured stars to represent the seven provinces that fought for independence from Spain. But in 2006, a new star joined the flag — one to symbolise Essequibo.

Experts, however, say Venezuela faces the possibility of backlash for using tools like the regional elections to assert control over Essequibo.

Sadio Garavini di Turno, a Venezuelan political analyst, used to serve as the country's ambassador to Guyana from 1980 to 1984. He considers Maduro's actions as not only "frivolous" but irresponsible, given the ongoing proceedings before the International Court of Justice.

“We're in a bad light with the court and the magistrates,” the ex-diplomat said.

He also questions Maduro's sabre-rattling in the region. While Venezuela’s military dwarfs that of Guyana, the former British colony has powerful allies, including the UK and the US.

Any full-fledged military takeover, Garavini di Turno argued, "would be a huge stupidity".

“If they take forceful action, they would have the international community, starting with the United States, against them," he said of Maduro and his allies. "It would give the community, particularly the United States, an excuse to intervene."

Already, in March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Venezuela it would face "consequences for aggressive actions".

The impact of the upcoming vote on Essequibo is so far unclear. Fernandez, the political analyst, said even details about who can even vote have been hazy.

“It's deliberately opaque,” Fernandez said. "Opacity is going to be the norm in the upcoming electoral processes.”