500 days of war in Ukraine: At what cost?

Five-hundred days ago, in the early hours of a cold February morning, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its western neighbour, Ukraine.

The Kremlin had hoped for a quick “special military operation” but 16-and-a-half months later, fighting is still raging with no immediate end in sight.

As the war reaches another grim milestone on Saturday, here are just some of the sombre ways it has upended life for tens of millions of people:

• 6.3 million Ukrainians have become refugees, according to the United Nations' refugee agency (UNHCR)
• 9,083 civilians have been killed in Ukraine, according to the latest figures from the UN's rights office (OHCHR); the real toll, however, is feared to be much higher
• 15,779 civilians have been wounded in Ukraine, according to the OHCHR
• Military casualties on both sides of the war are difficult to establish and verify; the warring sides often estimate rival losses, and are understood to downplay their own
• The cost of destruction is thought to be more than $143bn*, according to the latest findings from the Kyiv School of Economics
• It is estimated that Russia controls less than 20 percent of Ukrainian territory

The conflict has led to the fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II, with 6.3 million people forced to flee Ukraine since the invasion on February 24, 2022. The vast majority of them - 5,967,100 - went to other European countries.

An additional six million are internally displaced within Ukraine.

Most refugees are women and children, as Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60 have been instructed to remain in the country and fight.

The infographic below highlights the flow of refugees recorded from Ukraine across Europe between June 1, 2022 and July 7, 2023, as well as some of the painful stories of those forced to leave their homes.

Among those who fled in the early days of the war was a young boy called Mark Goncharuk. Battling back his tears, he said, “We left dad in Kyiv. And dad will be selling things and helping our heroes, helping our army. He might even fight.”

The countries with the largest refugee populations are Russia, with 1,275,315; Germany, with 1,076,680; Poland, with 999,690; the Czech Republic, with 350,455; and the United Kingdom, with 206,700.

The OHCHR estimates that 9,083 civilians have been killed in Ukraine and 15,779 wounded since Russia's invasion.

But these numbers are believed to be underestimates.

In territory controlled by the Ukrainian government, the OHCHR has recorded at least 20,073 casualties (7,072 killed and 13,001 wounded):

• In the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 9,966 casualties (4,105 killed and 5,861 wounded)
• In other regions: 10,107 casualties (2,967 killed and 7,140 wounded)

In territory occupied by Russia, the OHCHR has recorded at least 4,789 casualties (2,011 killed and 2,778 wounded):

• In the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 3,239 casualties (718 killed and 2,521 wounded)
• In other regions: 1,550 casualties (1,293 killed and 257 wounded)

Estimating military casualties is difficult as Ukrainian and Russian forces are likely downplaying their losses, while there is a lack of timely and reliable data.

According to Ukraine’s defence ministry, Russian personnel losses stand at 231,700 troops “liquidated” as of July 5.

According to the British Ministry of Defence, in the first year of the war, there were up to 200,000 casualties among Russian army troops and private military contractor forces, such as those deployed by the Wagner Group. This likely included between 40,000 to 60,000 killed.

More recently, according to an assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency leaked in April this year, Russia has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 total casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed in action and 154,000 to 180,000 wounded.

The US says Ukraine has suffered up to 131,000 total casualties, including up to 17,500 killed in action and up to 113,500 wounded in action.

Al Jazeera was unable to independently verify the numbers reported, which are higher than the casualty figures published by Kyiv and Moscow.

The gouged, scarred flanks of high-rise buildings across Ukraine have become characteristic of Russian's bombardment.

Missile attacks and shelling have destroyed hundreds of thousands of buildings and vital architecture - from homes and hospitals to power plants and other facilities.

A World Bank report in March stated that it will cost Ukraine $411bn over the next 10 years to recover and rebuild from the war - that is twice its pre-war gross domestic product.

Businesses have suffered significant damages, amounting to at least $11.3bn, a sum that is expected to increase as the war drags on. The cost of damages to Ukraine’s usually thriving agricultural sector is about $8.7bn.

According to the Kyiv School of Economics, the cost of replacing damaged buildings and infrastructure is believed to top $143.8bn.

A year ago, more than 20 percent of Ukraine was understood to be occupied after Russia captured key cities and strategic ports.

However, that estimate now stands at less, below 20 percent and according to some researchers, could be as low as 17 percent, as Ukraine fights to liberate its lands.

In the first months of the war, Russian troops moved swiftly to capture swaths of territory from northeastern Ukraine, namely around the capital, Kyiv, and the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv.

In other parts of Ukraine, Russia had gained control of areas around Kherson, Mariupol and many villages in the east. However, Moscow’s efforts were impeded by strong Ukrainian resistance, logistical issues and the influx of Western weapons to support Ukraine.

Ukraine’s first major counteroffensives resulted in the recapture of territory around Kharkiv and Kherson. In early June, Ukraine launched another widely anticipated counteroffensive to recapture areas in the east and south but progress so far has been slow.