Turkey election results updates: Erdogan-Kilicdaroglu in run-off

A May 28 runoff between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu has been confirmed to decide who becomes Turkey’s next president.

Erdogan took 49.5 percent of Sunday’s presidential vote, with his main challenger, Kilicdaroglu, getting 44.89 percent.

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• What’s a runoff? All to know about Turkey election results
• Erdogan defies ‘politicised’ opinion polls in Turkish election
• Turkey runoff vote: Nationalist Sinan Ogan could be ‘kingmaker’

Following Sunday’s election, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country showed it has an “advanced democratic culture”.

“With the maturity it showed yesterday, Turkey has shown that it is one of the countries with the most advanced democratic culture in the world,” Erdogan said in a tweet on Monday.

The president said that he will emerge victorious in the May 28 runoff.

The leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, has said in a statement that “the Turkish nation has given the whole world a lesson in democracy and have proven unfair claims, indecent insinuations, and baseless accusations wrong”.

“On May 28 [in the runoff election], Turkey will chose stability,” Bahçeli, an ally of President Erdogan, said on Monday.

“The Turkish nation gave a strong and spectacular support to the presidential government system on May 14,” he said. “It also reinforced the spirit of national unity and solidarity.”

In the aftermath of Turkey’s dramatic elections, a new name is on the lips of political commentators: third-placed presidential contender Sinan Ogan.

The nationalist candidate, backed by the ATA Alliance, secured 5.17 percent of the electorate. The support of those voters will be vital as President Erdogan and opposition leader Kilicdaroglu head to a second round on May 28 because neither crossed the 50-percent mark needed for an outright win.

“At the moment, we are not saying we will support this or that [candidate],” said Ogan, 55, early on Monday. “Those who do not distance themselves from terrorism should not come to us.”

Read the story here.

Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara mayor Mansur Yavaş have cried foul over the way the state-run Anadolu news agency reported electoral results on Sunday, saying it had given an exaggerated portrayal of Erdogan’s lead.

Al Jazeera’s Omar Alhaj, reporting from Izmir, said the mayors “accused Anadolu Agency of trying to create an ‘atmosphere of [de facto] victory’ as to ruin their chances at winning the second round”.

They said the inflated results provided a disincentive for opposition voters to head to the polling centres, he added.

Anadolu initially projected a 54 to 40 percent win for Erdogan. The news agency is widely used by international outlets for the coverage of Turkey.

Turkey’s High Election Board (YSK) showed a lack of transparency in its handling of Sunday’s elections, according to observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

An OSCE delegation said President Erdogan and the country’s ruling parties enjoyed an unjustified advantage over the opposition parties who faced unequal conditions for campaigning.

The findings were issued at a press conference on Monday.

“I regret to note that the election administration’s work was lacking in transparency,” Ambassador Jan Petersen, head of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights election observation mission, said at the press conference in Ankara, Turkey.

Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu both bagged 48 percent of the votes in Turkey’s Hatay province, the latter edging out the incumbent by a few percentage points.

Al Jazeera’s Amr Halabi, reporting from Gaziantep, wonders “whether the voters would change their minds in Hatay, a CHP stronghold”.

“All provinces affected by February’s devastating earthquakes voted for the ruling bloc in the parliamentary election, including Adana and Hatay,” he said.

“The big celebrations we witnessed last night, even before the official results had come in, were a sign of the great trust these provinces still have in Erdogan.”

The 11 provinces that were affected by February’s twin earthquakes were Kahramanmaras, Hatay, Gaziantep, Malatya, Diyarbakir, Kilis, Sanliurfa, Adiyaman, Osmaniye, Adana and Elazig. Eight of those backed Erdogan in the presidential polls.

Mehmet Mehdi Eker, the AK Party member of parliament for Diyarbakir, told Al Jazeera the party was “very confident” Erdogan will win the presidential decider on May 28 despite it being the first time in over two decades in power that he faces a runoff.

“There is a 2.5 million vote gap between [Erdogan] and the closest opponent,” Eker said. “We also have a majority in parliament, which is very important in order to have an organised administration.”

Eker added that the opposition, led by Kilicdaroglu, had “no vision, no substance”.

“The only thing that he had in his campaign was anti-American propaganda,” he said.

The Istanbul prosecutor’s office has launched an investigation into the social media accounts behind posts spreading false information about the election results, state media said.

It added that the office has also been examining provocative posts circulating false and misleading information about the voters in the regions affected by the massive February earthquakes.

The presidential and parliamentary election results in Turkey’s earthquake-hit provinces revealed major support for Erdogan and his AK Party.

The 11 provinces that were affected by February’s twin quakes were Kahramanmaras, Hatay, Gaziantep, Malatya, Diyarbakir, Kilis, Sanliurfa, Adiyaman, Osmaniye, Adana and Elazig.

Eight of those backed Erdogan in the presidential polls. Adana, Hatay and Diyarbakir voted for Kilicdaroglu.

In the parliamentary polls, 10 of them voted for Erdogan’s AK Party with the exception of the predominantly Kurdish province of Diyarbakir.

Days before Turkey headed into the most consequential presidential election in its modern history, most opinion polls showed President Erdogan trailing opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

On Sunday, observers and voters were left baffled after results showed Erdogan leading by a healthy margin.

Sonar Cagaptay, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the results confounded expectations.

“Erdogan pulling some three percentage points ahead or more … that’s surprising,” he told Al Jazeera from Ankara.

In a survey conducted on May 6-7, reputable pollster Konda put support for Kilicdaroglu at 49.3 percent and 43.7 percent for the 69-year-old incumbent. Another survey by Gezici showed Kilicdaroglu leading Erdogan by one point with 46.9 percent.

Read the story here.

Turkey is closely watching electoral results in major cities with Istanbul key in determining the general outcome.

Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu said Erdogan’s ruling bloc is holding a lead in the city of 15.4 million as well as in the capital, Ankara, according to the parliamentary election results.

However, Erdogan’s rival Kilicdaroglu won more votes in the two key provinces in the presidential polls.

The coastal city of Izmir remained a stronghold of Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party and also voted for him.

In eastern and southeastern cities, “most of the voters have voted for the green left party, which is the new umbrella for the pro-Kurdish HDP,” Koseoglu said.

Turkey’s lira held near a two-month low, its sovereign dollar bonds tumbled and the cost of insuring exposure to the country’s debt spiked after Sunday’s elections.

Turkish stocks also fell with the main banking index slumping by more than 9 percent.

The lira was valued at 19.66 to the dollar at 10:34 GMT after falling to 19.70 in earlier trading, its weakest since a record low of 19.80 hit in March this year after deadly earthquakes.

The Istanbul bourse was trading more than 2 percent lower after an earlier 6.38 percent drop triggered a market-wide circuit breaker.

“This is a major disappointment to investors hoping for a win for opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu and the reversion to orthodox economic policy he promised,” said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer.

Jan Petersen of the OSCE Election Observation Mission tells Al Jazeera that there are “positive and negative elements to this election” after his organisation said the ruling AK Party had an unfair advantage.

“Among the positives are the high turnout, a real choice between clear alternatives,” Petersen said before highlighting what he said was “bias in the media”.

“We have concerns, which we are putting in our report not for the first time,” he said.

Petersen said the OSCE mission will be staying for the May 28 run-off.

Kilicdaroglu has told his supporters to remain optimistic going into the presidential run-off, adding that he and his team have been working non-stop since Sunday.

“Do not become hopeless. I will stand tall. I will explain my clear findings regarding everything that has happened,” he tweeted.

“And afterwards, we will stand up and take this election together,” he said. “At the end of everything, it will only be what our nation decides.”

In an interview with Reuters, Ogan says he will consult with his voter base before making a decision on whom to support in the run-off.

“But we already made clear that the fight against terrorism and sending refugees back are our red lines,” Ogan said.

He said he could only support Kilicdaroglu in the run-off if the opposition candidate agrees to offer no concessions to a pro-Kurdish party. He added that his goal was to remove two mainly Kurdish parties from Turkey’s “political equation” and bolster Turkish nationalists and secularists.

The head of Turkey’s Supreme Election Council confirms that the presidential election will go to a run-off between the incumbent, Erdogan, and the main opposition candidate, Kilicdaroglu on May 28 because neither reached the 50 percent threshold to win outright.

Council Chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters that with about 35,000 votes left to be counted, Erdogan had won 49.51 percent of the vote and Kilicdaroglu 44.88 percent.

The parliamentary assembly of the world’s largest security organization, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), has announced its findings after monitoring the Turkish elections.

While it congratulated the Turkish people on their democratic spirit, it said the ruling AK Party had an unfair advantage.

The parliamentary assembly of the 57-member OSCE said Turkish media organisations faced limitations during the vote and were unfairly biased towards Erdogan’s People’s Alliance.

The OSCE also voiced disappointment over Turkey barring two lawmakers from a 100-strong mission monitoring Sunday’s elections.

Turkish authorities had denied mission accreditation to Danish MP Soren Sondergaard and Swedish MP Kadir Kasırga.

Ogan, who finished third in the presidential election, tells Germany’s Deutsche Presse-Agentur news agency that he wants firm assurances on a range of issues before he will endorse a candidate in a run-off vote on May 28.

“We have some preconditions,” Ogan said at his Ankara office, singling out fighting terrorism and the return of Syrian refugees.

He said constitutional protections to ensure Turkey’s secular principles were also necessary to obtain the support of his ATA Alliance, named after the Turkish republic’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Ogan said he will ask whoever he endorses to sign and share details of an agreement in a “transparent protocol” with the public.

Reporting from Ankara, Al Jazeera’s Farah al-Zaman Shawki, says the vote count for the capital city has been determined.

“Ankara is settled, and vote counting has ended. Ankara voted for Kilicdaroglu, who got 47 percent, compared to 46 percent for Erdogan,” Shawki said.

“The Turkish opposition achieved its victory in Ankara,” she said.

Opposition voters have expressed dismay and disbelief after Erdogan took a solid lead in the first round of Turkey’s presidential election.

“I have witnessed many elections,” said 55-year-old Menser Ozakdag, a taxi driver. “My 14-year-old daughter, who waited up all night for the election results, went to bed disappointed. They have left me devastated this time.”

“All I want is freedom, democracy, justice,” he said. “… I wish I had been born in another country.”

Reporting from Izmir, Al Jazeera’s Omar Hajj says the final results for the parliamentary and presidential elections are yet to be announced.

“Most votes in Izmir have been for the People’s Republican People’s Party [CHP],” said Hajj.

“In general, Izmir is known to be a stronghold for the CHP, but some cities voted for Erdogan. This constitutes a change in the mood of the Turkish voters here,” he added.

Reporting from Gaziantep, Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr says southern provinces have continued to show support for Erdogan’s National Alliance.

“These are traditionally its [AK Party] strongholds, provinces that were hit hard by the earthquake,” said Khodr. “So people’s loyalties were not shaken.”

“Yes, there was anger in the aftermath of the earthquakes for the government’s initial slow response. Yes, there’s still anger that the reconstruction has not begun in earnest. But the AK Party maintained its support in the region,” she added.

Reporting from Istanbul, Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Fal says the results of the presidential and parliamentary votes in the megacity reflected support for the opposition.

“Istanbul voted 48 percent in favour of Kilicdaroglu, while the metropolis gave 46 percent of its votes to Erdogan,” said Fal.

“Istanbul voted also for the People’s Republican Party [CHP] in parliament. This is remarkable,” he added.

Political analyst Ali Carkoglu says Erdogan has “the momentum behind him” following Sunday’s polls.

“Erdogan maintained his base of support in the heartland of Anatolia; although he lost some support in the southeast he still maintained the central Anatolian provinces. He also maintained some credible level of support in the big cities, as well,” Carkoglu told Al Jazeera.

“He was very successful also in the earthquake-hit regions. Some people find it surprising, but he apparently delivered what they expected of him and promises that he will deliver even better in the aftermath of the election.”

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Carkoglu said what went wrong for the opposition is that “they couldn’t get any support from the heartland of Turkey”.

He added that some of the opposition alliance members, especially the nationalists, did not perform as strongly as they hoped.

“The Nationalist Action Party was very successful in maintaining 10-11 percent of the vote, whereas the IYI Party, a major party in the opposition alliance, was not able to raise its level of support in any significant way.”

Analysts say it could be difficult for Kilicdaroglu to claw back Erdogan’s five-point lead in the weeks before the second round on May 28.

With 99 percent of the votes counted, Erdogan has so far received 49.4 percent of the votes, just short of an outright victory.

His main competitor, Kilicdaroglu could only get 44.96 percent, as the third contender, Sinan Ogan, has so far won 5.2 percent of the vote.

Reporting from Diyarbakir, Al Jazeera’s Walid al-Attar says popular opinion among Kurds was remarkably reflected in the preliminary results of the vote.

“Kurdish votes reflect support for Kilicdaroglu. The percentage of votes for him in this [Kurdish] region is about 72 percent,” said al-Attar.

“Yet, Kilicdaroglu’s CHP party did not win many seats in parliament from here,” he added.

The Kremlin says it is expecting its relationship with Turkey to grow regardless of the outcome of the presidential vote.

“We are watching the news coming from Turkey with great attention and interest. We will respect the choice of the Turkish people,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

“In any case, we expect that our cooperation will continue, deepen, expand.”

Read more about Turkey’s foreign policy, including its relationship with Russia, here.

Reporting from Ankara, Al Jazeera’s Farah al-Zaman Shawki, says final results are expected to be announced by 3pm (12:00 GMT).

“About 1,500 ballots coming from abroad have not yet been counted.

“So we do not yet know if the Supreme Elections Council will announce another round of elections,” said Shawki.

“Turnout in elections abroad was 51 percent, which is relatively good although lower than in Turkey,” she added.

Reporting from Izmir, Al Jazeera’s Omar Hajj says the ruling AK Party will have fewer seats in the new parliament than it does in the current one but its alliance will still hold a majority.

“The number of AK Party seats in parliament has decreased from 296 to 266,” Hajj said.

The Republican People’s Party won the second largest number of seats at 166.

The ultranationalist third presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, has emerged as the kingmaker after picking up 5 percent of the votes. He has yet to come out for either frontrunner.

Ogan, leader of the ATA Alliance party, has been accused of holding xenophobic and far-right views.

With almost all ballots counted, Erdogan is leading with 49.42 percent of the vote to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.95 percent, according to official figures provided by the state news agency Anadolu.

Turkish stocks have fallen as the presidential election appeared headed for a run-off with President Erdogan in the lead.

Turkey’s benchmark BIST-100 index fell more than 6 percent at the open, prompting a market-wide circuit breaker, before recouping some losses to trade 2.9 percent lower by 08:57 GMT.

The banking sub-index led losses on the index with a 9.10 percent fall.

Shares of Garanti Bank fell as much as 10 percent in morning trade, while Yapı Kredi Bank was down 9.97 percent.

Pro-government media have cheered the preliminary outcome of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections.

Yeni Safak newspaper led with “The people won”, referring to Erdogan’s People’s Alliance, which appeared to have won a majority in parliament and is leading in presidential ballot counts despite a likely run-off.

With about 99 percent of ballot boxes opened, Erdogan has received 49.4 percent of votes in the country’s presidential election, the head of the country’s election council has said.

Ahmet Yener, the head of the Supreme Election Council (YSK) said Erdogan’s rival, Kemal Kılıcdaroglu, had scored 44.96 percent and the third-placed candidate, ultranationalist and potential kingmaker Sinan Ogan 5.2 percent of the vote.

Some Turkish citizens have taken to social media to express their anger and disappointment with people who voted for Erdogan in quake-stricken southern provinces.

Erdogan’s government has been condemned for what its critics see as a slow response to the February 6 earthquakes, and many supporters of the opposition had expected voters in the region to support Kilicdaroglu.

In Kahramanmaras, the epicentre of the earthquake, preliminary results published by the Anadolu Agency showed more than 71 percent of the votes had gone to Erdogan.

“This means that from now on, we do not need to feel bad for anyone. People determine their fates for themselves,” said one social media user, referring to victims of the earthquakes.

demek ki bundan sonra kimseye acımamak lazımmış. insanlar kendi kaderlerini kendileri belirler.

— a. (@doesnthide) May 14, 2023

“I really cannot believe this. I will not be sad for most of them [quake victims] anymore,” another social media user said.

“I overexerted myself after the earthquake to try to do something. I became sick with sadness. They [quake victims] can go ask the AK Party for help. There is nothing to say,” the post said.

İnanamıyorum gerçekten. Çoğuna üzülmeyeceğim artık. Depremden beri kendimi parçaladım birşeyler yapabilmek için, hasta oldum üzüntüden. Gitsinler akp den yardım istesinler, diyecek bişey yok

— Docto r Sapiens 👩‍💻👩‍🔬 (@PforpHD) May 14, 2023

One person said they only felt sorry for children who had been affected by the earthquake, but they had otherwise lost all sympathy for people affected by the quake.

“Other than the kids, I will no longer be sad for anyone else,” the social media user wrote on Twitter.

Çocuklar hariç hiç birine üzülmem artık ✌🏻

— Asaf Kurt (@Askurtasaf) May 14, 2023

Reporting from Istanbul, Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu says Erdogan will have to try to win back the Kurdish vote, which he had previously taken before the breakdown of the peace process.

“After the peace process with the Kurds collapsed, the Kurds were offended with President Erdogan,” Koseoglu said. “The government’s security-oriented policies after the [2016] coup attempt also distanced the Kurds.”

“In the southeastern region, where Kurdish-dominated cities are, the votes went for CHP. Erdogan … needs those votes,” she said, adding that the third presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, who won more votes than expected, will have to decide whether to back Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu in the run-off.

“Until the second round, it is all about negotiations,” she said.

Reporting from Istanbul, Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu says the election results so far are from news agencies that have been collecting numbers from political parties.

“The Supreme Election Board is expected to announce the official results. It could be today or tomorrow,” said Koseoglu.

“Schools that were used as polling stations still have ballot boxes that need to be counted,” she added.

Iran’s foreign ministry has said a high voter turnout in the Turkey elections is a sign that the rule of democracy has prevailed in the neighbouring Muslim nation.

“We congratulate this victory to the people of Turkey, election organisers, and political leaders and parties, and wish them the best outcome,” spokesman Nasser Kanani said in a short statement.

🔽 Iran congratulates Turkey over presidential, parliamentary votes

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani has reacted to the high electoral participation rates in Turkey’s election, describing it as a victory for democracy. pic.twitter.com/NE6a3JZ998

— Iran Foreign Ministry 🇮🇷 (@IRIMFA_EN) May 15, 2023

Reporting from Gaziantep, Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr says even if the opposition wins the run-off, it will be very hard for the National Alliance to push through a return to a parliamentary system of government.

“If President Erdogan forms a new alliance in the parliament, he can call for a referendum or a new election,” she said.

Khodr said there are some members of the opposition who are disappointed with Kilicdaroglu and consider him the wrong candidate as he was not able to reach out and chip away the conservative votes from the party.

“They are also questioning the alliance with the pro-Kurdish HDP which the Turkish government considers to be a political wing of the PKK.”

The main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu has said he would accept a run-off and would win it.

“Despite all of his lies and attacks, Erdogan did not receive the desired outcome,” said Kilicdaroglu.

“No one should be enthusiastic about this being a done deal. The election is not won on the balcony,” he said, in an apparent reference to Erdogan’s choice of speech venue.

A lot of speculation has surrounded who the third presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, would throw his weight behind in the event of a second round.

In an interview with German news site Der Spiegel, Ogan suggested he would only lend his support to the opposition Nation’s Alliance if the “HDP is excluded from the political system”, in reference to its successor party, Yesil Sol.

Given the margins, Ogan’s 5.25 percent would be a huge help to either Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu.

Ahmet Yener, the head of the Supreme Election Council (YSK), says 1,817, 010 votes were cast overseas, and only 30.8 percent of those ballot boxes had been opened.

This represents a significant lag on nearly 90 percent of domestic ballot boxes that had been opened at the time of his statement.

Yener said the delays were due to a rise in the number of overseas voters and in the number of parties running in the elections. There were eight parties in 2018, and 24 this time around.

The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts has surged to a six-month high, after a closely-contested presidential election appeared headed to a run-off vote.

The five-year Turkey credit default swap spread jumped 105 basis points (bps) from Friday’s levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the highest since November 2022.

Turkey’s lira has slipped to a new two-month low as financial markets kicked off trading in the wake of the country’s presidential and parliamentary election results.

The main BIST 100 share index closed 1.08 percent lower at 4,795.61 points on Friday before the vote.

Speaking to supporters in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says he could still win but would respect the nation’s decision if the race went to a run-off vote in two weeks.

“We don’t yet know if the elections ended in the first round … If our nation has chosen for a second round, that is also welcome,” Erdogan said.

He noted that votes from Turkish citizens living abroad still need to be tallied. He garnered 60 percent of the overseas vote in 2018.