Poland’s presidential run-off too close to call, exit polls show

Exit polls in Poland’s presidential run-off show the race is still too close to call, in a vote seen as a test of the nation’s support for a pro-European Union course versus Donald Trump-style nationalism.

A late exit poll by Ipsos for broadcasters TVN, TVP and Polsat on Sunday showed Eurosceptic Karol Nawrocki at 51 percent, and his rival, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, at 49 percent.

Readings published just after voting ended had Nawrocki losing at 49.7 percent, with 50.3 percent going to his opponent.

Official results were due on Monday.

Though the final result was still unclear, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in the Polish capital, Warsaw.

“We won,” Trzaskowski told his supporters to chants of “Rafał, Rafał”.

“This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future,” Trzaskowski said. “I will be your president.”

Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win.

“We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.”

While Poland’s parliament holds most power, the president can veto legislation, and the vote was being watched closely in Ukraine as well as Russia, the United States and across the EU.

The run-off follows a tightly contested first round on May 18, in which Trzaskowski won just more than 31 percent, and Nawrocki won nearly 30 percent, eliminating 11 other candidates.

The winner will succeed incumbent Andrzej Duda, the outgoing nationalist conservative president who was blamed for holding up justice reforms by using his veto against Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government.

Tusk, the leader of the Civic Coalition (KO) party, took office about 18 months ago.

The presidential campaign has highlighted stark ideological divides, with the outcome expected to determine whether Poland continues along a nationalist path or pivots more decisively towards liberal democratic norms.

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old former boxer, who is favoured by US President Donald Trump, has positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, and is sceptical of the EU.

Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old son of a famous jazz musician, has promised to restore judicial independence, ease abortion restrictions and promote constructive ties with European partners.

Amid rising security fears over Russia’s war on Ukraine, both candidates support aid to Kyiv, though Nawrocki opposes NATO membership for neighbouring Ukraine, while Trzaskowski supports it.

Both candidates, however, have taken a hardline approach to immigration, using anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and building on growing resentment among Poles who see themselves as competing for strained social services with 1.55 million Ukrainian war refugees and migrants.

While Trzaskowski has proposed that only working Ukrainians should have access to the country’s child benefit, Nawrocki has gone further, saying he would also be against Ukraine joining NATO or even the EU.

A win by Nawrocki will likely mean that Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico gain an ally in central Europe. His victory could lend momentum to the Czech Republic’s eurosceptic opposition leader and former Prime Minister Andrej Babis who leads opinion polls ahead of an October election.

US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem spoke in Nawrocki’s favour in May, telling a conservative gathering in Poland that he “needs to be the next president”.