Portugal’s ruling party set to win general election, fall short of majority

Portugal’s governing centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is poised to win the most votes in an early parliamentary election, but is short of a full majority, exit polls have shown, paving the way for more political instability in the country.

Sunday’s election, the third in as many years, was called just one year into the minority government’s term, after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro failed to win a parliamentary vote of confidence in March.

Near complete official results showed that Montenegro’s AD captured 32.7 percent of the vote, with the Socialist Party (PS) and far-right Chega virtually tied in second place.

That would boost the AD’s seat tally in the 230-seat parliament to 89, but still short of the 116 seats required for a governing majority.

“The people want this government and this prime minister,” Montenegro told his cheering supporters after the results were announced.

The Socialists obtained just about 50,000 votes more than Chega and fell to 58 seats from 78, a huge blow to one of Portugal’s two main parties. Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos said he would step down.

Chega outperformed most opinion polls and took 58 seats, eight more than last year.

Even with the backing of upstart business-friendly party Liberal Initiative (IL), which won nine seats, the AD would still need the support of Chega to pass legislation.

But Montenegro, 52, a lawyer by profession, has refused any alliance with the anti-establishment party, saying it is “unreliable” and “not suited to governing”.

Montenegro was forced to call a parliamentary election after the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of his family’s consultancy firm. He has denied any wrongdoing.

The election, also dominated by issues such as housing and immigration, follows a decade of fragile governments.

The only one of those governments to have a parliamentary majority collapsed halfway through its term last year.

For the last half century, two parties have dominated politics in Portugal – with the Social Democrats, who head the DA, and the PS alternating in power.

But public frustration with their record in government has fuelled the search for and growth of new alternatives in recent years.

Political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto said the new parliament would likely be similar to the last, and it was impossible to predict how long the government would last, as it depended on factors ranging from the international situation to the AD’s ability to reach deals with other parties.

“The only doubt is whether the AD will form a new minority government… or whether it will form a post-electoral coalition with IL, even if this coalition does not guarantee an absolute majority,” he said, referring to the pro-business Liberal Initiative (IL) party, according to Reuters.

A second consecutive minority government in Portugal would dash hopes for an end to the worst spell of political instability in decades for the European Union country of 10.6 million people.