Control of the United States Senate will be at stake when Americans go to vote on November 3.
Republicans presently hold a 53-47 majority over Democrats and two independents in the 100-member upper chamber of the US Congress. But Democrats are eyeing several paths to a majority through at least nine vulnerable Republican seats.
Democrats will need to pick up a net of four seats for a 51-49 majority. If they net only three seats to make it a 50-50 Senate, Joe Biden would also need to win the presidency for Democrats to seize the majority, as the vice president, Kamala Harris in his case, would hold the tie-breaking vote.
Indeed, Republicans are in a “knife fight” with Democrats for control of the Senate, Republican leader Mitch McConnell said in a US television interview on September 11.
The Senate plays an outsize role in passing federal laws and shapes the US presidency through its “advice and consent” role under the US Constitution.
President Donald Trump has enjoyed a Republican majority in the Senate since taking office in 2017.
In February, the chamber acquitted Trump of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress after the House impeached him at the end of 2019.
Under Trump, the Senate has confirmed two conservative US Supreme Court justices and a deluge of conservative lower-court judges who will shape the US justice system for years to come. McConnell said the Senate will vote on Trump’s nominee to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday.
And the Republican Senate has protected Trump from congressional attempts to reverse his executive actions and blocked legislative proposals by Democrats who control the 435-member US House of Representatives.
Thirty-five Senate seats, 23 held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats, will be up for election in November.
Here’s a look at the top nine most competitive races that could reshape the Senate:
Martha McSally, Arizona
Martha McSally, 54, is a retired US Air Force colonel and was the first female fighter pilot to fly in combat and the first to lead a fighter squadron in combat.
She served in the House of Representatives before running for Senate in 2018, losing to Democratic opponent Kyrsten Sinema. However, McSally was appointed by Arizona’s governor, per state law, to take the seat of retiring Senator Jon Kyl, a Republican who had been named a placeholder following the death of Senator John McCain in 2018.
McSally faces a tough special election fight against challenger Democrat Mark Kelly, 56, a retired US Navy pilot and astronaut who is the husband of former US Representative Gabrielle Giffords, a gun-control advocate wounded in an attempted assassination in 2011.
McSally has tied herself closely to Trump, who feuded with McCain and disparaged him following his death from brain cancer. Polls show Kelly leading McSally, and he has raised more in money contributions than she has.
Cory Gardner, Colorado
Senator Cory Gardner, 46, who is serving his first term in the Senate, is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents and is one of two Senate Republicans up for re-election in states that Trump lost in 2016.
Hillary Clinton won the state by 48 percent to 43 percent over Trump. Colorado Democrats have won the last four statewide races for governor. And Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden is leading Trump in Colorado polls.
Gardner, an attorney and former US representative, has aligned himself closely with Trump, which analysts have suggested may hurt him in the increasingly Democratic state. He is set to face former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, 68, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential contest to run for Senate.
Hickenlooper leads Gardner in surveys, as independent voters in the state side with Democrats, and he has matched the incumbent in fundraising.
Gardner’s vulnerability has made him one of the closest watched senators as Republicans move to confirm a Supreme Court nominee before the election.
David Perdue, Georgia
David Perdue, 70, a businessman and close Trump ally, will seek a second term in November. Perdue, who is a cousin of Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture, former Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue, had never previously held elected office.
He faces 33-year-old media executive Jon Ossoff, who was endorsed by the late civil rights icon and US Representative John Lewis. Ossoff, who has never held elected office, gained name recognition in Georgia in 2017 during a failed bid to beat Republican Karen Handel for an Atlanta-area House seat.
Perdue has been leading in polls and fundraising, but recent surveys indicate support moving towards Ossoff.
Joni Ernst, Iowa
Joni Ernst, 50, an Army National Guard lieutenant colonel and the first woman to represent Iowa in Congress, is running for a second term in the Senate.
She faces Democrat Theresa Greenfield, 56, a real estate developer who has turned Ernst’s anti-Washington establishment platform against her.
Trump carried Iowa by nine points in 2016, but recent polls in the state indicate slipping support for Republicans. Democratic donors poured cash into Greenfield’s campaign and outside groups have spent millions opposing Ernst.
Susan Collins, Maine
Susan Collins, 67, is one of the most endangered Republicans in the US Senate. As the national Republican Party has moved to the right in recent years, Collins has struggled to maintain her position as a moderate. Now, she is the only Republican serving in Congress from the increasingly Democratic region of New England.
After Ginsburg’s death, Collins was the first Republican senator to break from party ranks and oppose moving forward with a Supreme Court Justice confirmation before the election.
Prior to that, Collins had criticised Trump on occasion, but was unwilling to break from the party and vote against Trump in the Senate impeachment trial, and was a key enabler of the Senate confirmation of Trump’s conservative Supreme Court nominee, Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Collins’ endorsement of Kavanaugh made her a target for Democrats, pro-choice advocates and women’s groups. Planned Parenthood, a reproductive health organisation that had previously supported Collins, endorsed her challenger, Democrat Sara Gideon, 48, who has gotten a big boost in funding from outside groups.
Gideon raised $24.2m as of July, compared to Collins’s $17m. Gideon is well-known in Maine as speaker of the state House of Representatives and leads Collins in opinion polls.
Steve Daines, Montana
Steve Daines, 58, who previously served in the US House of Representatives, is running for a second term in the Senate. He faces Montana’s Democratic governor Steve Bullock, who has garnered high approval ratings in the state.
Bullock, 54, joined the Senate race after abandoning a launched a long-shot presidential bid, and was recruited by both former President Barack Obama and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
While Trump handily won Montana in 2016 and has said he will travel to Montana to support Daines, polls show Daines with only a slight edge over Bullock and independent analysts rate the race a toss-up.
Both candidates have shattered fundraising records for the state, with Daines bringing in $13m and Bullock $11m as of the end of June.
Thom Tillis, North Carolina
Thom Tillis, 60, a former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, is running for his second term against Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state senator and Iraq war veteran.
Early polls show a tight race, with Cunningham, 47, leading in most surveys. Cunningham broke fundraising records in July to gain a money advantage over Tillis.
Early on, Tillis had questioned some of Trump’s decisions, including his emergency declaration to build a wall along the southern border with Mexico. But he became one of the president’s strongest defenders during the Senate impeachment trial.
Trump has strong support among rural voters in North Carolina, as he does throughout the US South, and Tillis’s campaign is betting Trump will help win over swing voters on the economy and immigration.
South Carolina, Georgia too
Two more Republican races to watch are Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s tougher-than-expected re-election contest against Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, and the race of new Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who must win a ‘king of the hill’ special election after being appointed by Georgia’s governor to replace a retiring senator.
Doug Jones, Alabama
Doug Jones is the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election in the Senate. He won office in 2018 in Republican Alabama in a special election contest against former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, whose candidacy was crippled by sexual misconduct allegations.
Jones now faces a more formidable foe in Tommy Tuberville, 65, a former big-time US football coach who led Auburn University to legendary victories over in-state rival University of Alabama six times between 1999 and 2008.
While Tuberville leads in polls, Jones has out-fundraised him by a wide margin. Independent analysts see the race leaning Republican.
Gary Peters, Michigan
Gary Peters, 61, is running for a second term against Republican challenger John James, 39, a Detroit businessman and a former helicopter pilot in Iraq.
James, an African American who has spoken about his interactions with police, has shown himself to be a formidable fundraiser running on a platform of unity and bipartisanship.
Peters faced criticism in the battleground state for his vote to convict Trump on articles of impeachment.
Peters leads slightly in polling and spending by outside groups. Analysts give him an edge to win in November.