Tomorrow is election day in the United States and Donald Trump, Joe Biden, their running mates and their spouses will spend the last day of the presidential campaign in key battleground states looking for last-minute votes.
More than 94 million Americans have voted already by mail or via in-person early voting, which represents 68.4 percent of the overall 2016 vote total.
Where the candidates are today
Trump will hold five rallies in four states: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden has four events across Pennsylvania and Ohio. Vice President Mike Pence and Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris will also spend the day in Pennsylvania. First Lady Melania Trump will campaign in North Carolina and Biden’s wife Jill is in Pennsylvania. Former President Barack Obama will also stump for Biden in Georgia and Florida today.
If the campaign schedules do not make it obvious, Pennsylvania has shaped up to be Ground Zero for both campaigns. Each believes they have a chance at winning the state’s 20 electoral votes, which Trump won in an extremely tight race in 2016.
If Trump cannot repeat that feat this year, it significantly narrows his path to victory, especially if he also loses the other two Midwestern states he won by less than one percentage point: Michigan and Wisconsin.
The latest polls in Pennsylvania have shown Biden with a slim lead over Trump, but also suggest a tightening race in the final days.
A Monmouth University poll released this morning has Biden with a five to seven-point lead over Trump, depending on the turnout scenario. In a high-turnout situation, Biden leads by seven, but he has a five-point lead in a low-turnout scenario. Monmouth’s poll last month had Biden up 11 points and eight points in each of those scenarios. The poll’s margin of error is +/-4.4 percent.
Three other Pennsylvania polls released on Sunday give Biden between a six and seven-point lead with margins of error of 4.3 percent or below.
In other battlegrounds, factoring in new polls released over the weekend, Biden and Trump are statistically tied in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. Meanwhile, Biden holds an average lead of 5.1 percent in Michigan and 6.6 percent in Wisconsin.
In case you missed it
Who will turn out?: With 94 million votes already cast, who is left to vote tomorrow? Al Jazeera’s William Roberts reports that through the use of big data and microtargeting, both the Biden and Trump campaigns know who they still need to get out to vote.
Women voters: Women have voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, making them a powerful force, writes Al Jazeera’s Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath.
Trump’s slimmest victories: We look back at how close Trump’s 2016 presidential election really was: four of the states that Trump won were won by less than 1.2 percentage points.
Asylum seekers: Central and South American asylum seekers stuck on the US border are watching tomorrow’s results with hope and fear, as their fates are tied to whichever presidential candidate wins, reports Al Jazeera’s Megan Janetsky.
Somalia watching closely: Al Jazeera’s Hamza Mohamed writes that many in Somalia are keeping a close eye on the US election as their country has felt the effect of the US’s so-called “war on terror” and Trump’s Muslim ban.