Long road to the White House begins

Success in Iowa could build momentum for the rest of the primaries [GALLO/GETTY]

Iowa in January has been the icy graveyard of many a presidential dream.

But also, for one man or woman, this is where the long road to the White House begins.

The American presidential campaign is a long, complex and expensive process.

For the moment at least all the world is watching Iowa, because the residents of this small, rural, overwhelmingly white state cast the first real votes.

On Thursday, Iowa Democrats and Republicans will gather in “caucuses” – local meetings held in schools, fire stations or community halls – to signal their preferences for president.

A win in the Iowa caucuses gives candidates credibility, media attention, and the all-important sense of momentum heading into the next round of primaries.

“When other states hold nominating events very close to Iowa, people who do poorly in Iowa don’t have a chance to recover from that stumble,” says Dennis Goldford, a professor of political science at Drake University in Des Moines.

The call for change

Iowans who braved the numbing cold to attend a rally for Democrat Barack Obama at a high school auditorium in Iowa Falls earlier this week had a lot on their minds.

Asked what were the most important issues, these voters ticked off the war in Iraq, education, health care, global warming and the fiscal health of social security and pensions.

All three leading Democratic candidates have boiled down their message to one word: Change.

Obama, a senator who has been in office for just three years, says his background, vision and newness to the Washington power structure make him the best agent of change.

Could Barack Obama be the first African-American president? [GALLO/GETTY]

If elected in November, he would be the first African-American president of the US.

“We need to turn the page!” Obama told the crowd, to cheers and applause.

“We need to try something new. We need to write a new chapter in American history!”

Hillary Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady, says her deep experience will allow her to bring about change.

If elected, she would be the first female US chief executive.

Clinton was energetic and enthusiastic as she addressed a crowd in Ames on Tuesday.

“Are you ready for change?” she asked the audience of about 750 people.

“Yeah!” people yelled back.

“Are you ready to end the war in Iraq?” “Yeah!”

“Are you ready for universal health care for every single American?”

“Woo-hoo!”

Clinton shrugged off new poll numbers showing her trailing Obama 32 per cent to 25 per cent, with former North Carolina senator John Edwards in third place with 24 percent.

Hammering away at the theme of change, Edwards told supporters his record of defeating big corporations as a lawyer gives him the ability to alter the system.

“I don’t need a poll to tell me we’re moving, and we’re moving every single day, and we’re moving in the right direction on this campaign,” Edwards said.

Christians key

The biggest surprise has been on the Republican side.

John McCain is lagging in third place in Iowa [GALLO/GETTY]

Multibillionaire former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has spent millions on galvanising supporters and advertising only to see his early lead evaporate.

Former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister Mike Huckabee has suddenly surged ahead, after Iowa’s evangelical Christians threw him their support.

“We woke up to some good news today,” Huckabee crowed to supporters in Des Moines.

“A Des Moines Register poll shows us in first place.”

A victory in Iowa is no guarantee of success in the string of primaries that lie ahead, starting with New Hampshire just five days later and culminating in the 22-state extravaganza known as Super Tuesday, on February 5.

“The other states don’t simply salute and say ‘yes sir, Iowa, we will vote the way you voted,'” says Goldford.

In fact, since the Iowa caucuses first became prominent media events more than 30 years ago, just two caucus winners have gone on to actually enter the White House as president: Jimmy Carter in 1976, and the current president, George Bush, in 2000.