Ten predictions for 2012

Al Jazeera's Barnaby Phillips shares his thoughts on the outcomes of major political, economic and sporting events in the next 12 months.


    What will be the major news events of 2012?

    A colleague sent me a list of questions the other day, daring me to make predictions about major political, economic and sporting events in the next 12 months. Here are those questions, and my answers, most of which will no doubt look rather foolish come December 31, 2012.

    I thought it would be fun to share them, and see if  readers have their own answers.

    And please, please remember that my predictions do not necessarily reflect my personal preferences. I'm simply trying to estimate/guess what the next 12 months have in store. 

    1)  What will a barrel of oil cost at the end of 2012? (At the end of 2011 it was $108).


    2)  Who will win the US presidential election?

    President Obama, despite all the bad economic news and the other disappointments of his first term. But if the Republicans choose Mitt Romney as their candidate, the result will be close.

    3)  Will any country drop out of either the euro or  the European Union?

    Greece will come under intense pressure to drop out of the euro currency zone, but no countries will leave the EU.

    4) Who will win the most gold medals at the London Olympics? (In the Beijing 2008 Olympics,  it was China with 51).

    China to win the most gold medals again.

    5) Which country will win football's Euro 2012?

    Spain, as a golden generation of players still seem to have plenty more life in them.

    6) Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?

    South Africa's Treatment Action Campaign for leading a successful fight for the greater availability of anti-retroviral drugs for millions of HIV positive people. 

    7) Who will be president of France?

    Francois Hollande to defeat Nicolas Sarkozy

    8) If the issue of Palestinian statehood goes before the UN General Assembly, how many countries, out of the 192 members, will cast a (non-binding) vote in favour of recognition?


    9) Who will win the Russian presidential election?

    Vladimir Putin, of course.

    10) Who will win the men's tennis at Wimbledon?

    Andrew Murray 



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