![US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia John Abizaid and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan greet Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his wife Susan as they arrive at Neom Bay Airport in Neom, Saudi Arabia on November 22, 2020 [AP/Patrick Semansky]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/AP_20327652883178.jpg?resize=270%2C180)
Biden will bring change to policy-making in Washington, but he will still struggle with Trump’s legacy.
![Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat elbow bumps with an Emirati official, as he leaves Abu Dhabi on September 1, 2020 [Nir Elias/Pool via AP]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/7abb0259e91341d0adf07aedcc06a0a8_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The Israel-Gulf normalisation deals are unlikely to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
![Aftermath of a massive explosion is seen in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020 [AP Photo/Hassan Ammar]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3aa64fa678b84a858ad86cc1c7840686_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
On August 4, a failing state, through negligence and corruption, destroyed its own capital and killed its own citizens.
![US President Donald Trump with Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman at the G20 leaders' summit in Japan, in June 2019 [File: Reuters]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/37d2f26b9b674abcb24d0462c7c0000a_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The recent arrests in Saudi show the US can no longer rein in MBS, and any attempt could backfire on Trump.
![US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders celebrates winning the Nevada Caucus, during which he called the leaders of Saudi Arabia "murderous thugs" [REUTERS/Callaghan O'hare]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/a81e0288061f4ae28e1af808122d4600_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Mohammed bin Salman has put all his eggs in Trump’s basket, but what happens if the US leadership changes?
![Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah addresses a funeral ceremony to mourn Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani in Beirut's suburbs on January 5, 2020 [Reuters/Aziz Taher]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/6916e9ce367044929c1859bdaba9ad06_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Local circumstances limit the extent to which Iran and its proxies can retaliate against the US in Lebanon and Syria.
![Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation on October 29, 2019 [Anadolu]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/42524f35dcbb44318b5f1e26c9cf3601_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
There are at least three scenarios for what happens after PM Saad Hariri’s resignation.
![US President Donald Trump speaks about Turkey and Syria at the White House in Washington, October 7, 2019 [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/8db2ffc4e8dd48b2b7f2ae85491c515f_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria is just another side effect of his mounting troubles at home and abroad.
![A convoy of Turkish military trucks destined for Syria seen in Hatay province, southeastern Turkey, near the border with Syria, January 14, 2019 [File: Mehmet Kocacik/DHA via AP]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/25bd400684194389a18d69f97c0e42cf_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The recently concluded US-Turkey agreement has delayed but not precluded a conflict in northeast Syria.
![Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during their meeting in Moscow on April 8, 2019 [Reuters/Maxim Shipenkov]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cebe3219b4a248098f567febefe7a970_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The recent escalation in Idlib demonstrates that Russia and Turkey are increasingly unable to agree on Syria.