![Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat elbow bumps with an Emirati official, as he leaves Abu Dhabi on September 1, 2020 [Nir Elias/Pool via AP]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/7abb0259e91341d0adf07aedcc06a0a8_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The Israel-Gulf normalisation deals are unlikely to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
![Aftermath of a massive explosion is seen in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2020 [AP Photo/Hassan Ammar]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/3aa64fa678b84a858ad86cc1c7840686_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
On August 4, a failing state, through negligence and corruption, destroyed its own capital and killed its own citizens.
![US President Donald Trump with Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman at the G20 leaders' summit in Japan, in June 2019 [File: Reuters]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/37d2f26b9b674abcb24d0462c7c0000a_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The recent arrests in Saudi show the US can no longer rein in MBS, and any attempt could backfire on Trump.
![US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Bernie Sanders celebrates winning the Nevada Caucus, during which he called the leaders of Saudi Arabia "murderous thugs" [REUTERS/Callaghan O'hare]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/a81e0288061f4ae28e1af808122d4600_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Mohammed bin Salman has put all his eggs in Trump’s basket, but what happens if the US leadership changes?
![Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah addresses a funeral ceremony to mourn Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani in Beirut's suburbs on January 5, 2020 [Reuters/Aziz Taher]](/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/6916e9ce367044929c1859bdaba9ad06_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Local circumstances limit the extent to which Iran and its proxies can retaliate against the US in Lebanon and Syria.
![Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation on October 29, 2019 [Anadolu]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/42524f35dcbb44318b5f1e26c9cf3601_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
There are at least three scenarios for what happens after PM Saad Hariri’s resignation.
![US President Donald Trump speaks about Turkey and Syria at the White House in Washington, October 7, 2019 [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/8db2ffc4e8dd48b2b7f2ae85491c515f_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria is just another side effect of his mounting troubles at home and abroad.
![A convoy of Turkish military trucks destined for Syria seen in Hatay province, southeastern Turkey, near the border with Syria, January 14, 2019 [File: Mehmet Kocacik/DHA via AP]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/25bd400684194389a18d69f97c0e42cf_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The recently concluded US-Turkey agreement has delayed but not precluded a conflict in northeast Syria.
![Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during their meeting in Moscow on April 8, 2019 [Reuters/Maxim Shipenkov]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cebe3219b4a248098f567febefe7a970_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
The recent escalation in Idlib demonstrates that Russia and Turkey are increasingly unable to agree on Syria.
![US President Donald Trump holds a proclamation recognising Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights as he is applauded by Israel's PM Benjamin Netanyahu on March 25, 2019 [Reuters/Carlos Barria]](/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/f9d25f19943349caa822ad7494fffca8_18.jpeg?resize=270%2C180)
Trump hopes his gestures of unconditional support for Israel will mobilise US evangelicals and win him a re-election.