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Africa
Zimbabwe rivals agree to talk
Al Jazeera examines what the agreement means for the parties and for the people.
Last Modified: 21 Jul 2008 19:43 GMT

Mugabe is well aware that his government is
slowly being isolated [AFP]
Zimbabwe has taken the first step to ending its political crisis, with ruling Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) signing a memorandum that set the scene for talks.

These talks will give Zimbabwe's politicians a fresh chance at putting the plight of the people ahead of party or self-interest.

Western governments have been critical of Robert Mugabe, the Zimbabwean president, for a long time, but in recent weeks even African heads of state have turned on him and that, for Mugabe, holds more weight than what Western nations have to say.

Mugabe is well aware that his government and his top aides are slowly being isolated, while the opposition is gaining diplomatic support, especially from African states that have in the past been pro-Zanu-PF.

Then there is still the threat of sanctions. On Tuesday the European Union will decide on targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his aides.

Weak economy

The time of the talks are crucial. Zimbabwe's economy is almost at rock bottom; inflation has rocketed to 2.2 million per cent.

This week the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank is expected to release a 100 billion Zimbabwean dollar note.

People are already struggling to survive - life is going to become much harder. Thousands of Zimbabweans are starving and no aid is reaching them.

There is also the possibility that this could see more Zimbabweans fleeing to neighbouring countries, putting pressure on their already stretched resources.

As recent events in South Africa have shown, the fight over scarce resources between poor locals and poor Zimbabweans can lead to xenophobic clashes. And at the end of the day economic troubles in one South African country affect all the others.

Transport companies are struggling to get goods to places like Malawi and Zambia.

Previously goods would have be driven through Zimbabwe. The lack of fuel there and political instability has seen many companies struggling to find other routes to get their products to buyers north of Zimbabwe.

Inside Zimbabwe, opposition supporters are being arrested and attacked, their homes torched. Some opposition supporters - admittedly not many - are now arming themselves and retaliating.

If this violence continues, it is eventually going to lead to more blood shed - there is very real fear that Zimbabwe could be heading for a civil war.

Political maturity

There will be many stumbling blocks moving forward and the talks, planned for in this deal, will be difficult because there is so much distrust between the various factions.

The main stumbling block is going to be the shape of the all-inclusive government - will Mugabe stay on as President? Will Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader, be offered a vice presidency?

Will Morgan Tsvangirai be offered a
vice-presidency? [Reuters]
Neither politician has in the past been willing to move on this. Mugabe wants to be acknowledged as Head of State, Tsvangirai believes he is the rightful presidential winner.

So the mediators and both political parties are really going to have to talk and be prepared to make concessions.

The opposition has already received some concessions from Zanu-PF, amendments to the constitution and to certain laws that they considered undemocratic.

Zanu-PF has shown some willingness to do things differently this time.

If there is political maturity - if both sides are willing to make the effort - then a power-sharing deal can be agreed upon.

And if they can eventually find a compromise, the question then will be how long will this unity government be in place before truly free and fair elections take place?

Source:
Al Jazeera
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